Actually, the asymmetry has provided natural experiments that the Expert Class continues to ignore. Comparison of the case rates/hospitalization rates/death rates for the least subjugated states and the most subjugated states shows no practical difference. This is important, real-world data with most of the confounders washed out by the law of large numbers. But this fact-in-evidence is seldom mentioned.
The lack of value of almost all of the measures (other than the diminishing of severity of the disease for a few months in the elderly after the mRNA series -- something not valueless for sure, at least for them in the short term) has been obvious for months and should have allowed the unreasoning policies of the more restrictive areas (vaccine passports/masking/school closure) to be ended. Instead, in the way first cited by Einstein, most of those jurisdictions just continue to try twice as hard to do what has been demonstrated not to work.
This has been an irretrievable failure of public health (lying to people is likely the worst thing to do when trying to get public health trust... and people do not forget) but, much to my continuing distress, has also abrogated substantially the credibility of most practicing physicians. Since the doctor/patient relationship, and not some bureaucratic psychobabble, is the foundation of health care delivery, this will have, I fear, long term untoward consequences for all of us.
America locking down harder? No need to theorise. Simply look at other parts of the world. In Jordan, the army was deployed on the streets to force people to stay at home. In Germany and Austria they have been N95/FFP2 for the whole pandemic, vaccine passes and extra pcr testing to get a coffee. Plenty of covid still there! The British forbade hugs. In Canada people were encouraged to snitch on each other. Why is it so hard to accept that you can't out-virus a respiratory virus?
Don't get me started on China or Australia. Both those countries bought themselves a year. In Australia's case the cost was them turning into a paranoid obsessive draconian police state - which has plenty of covid!
But hey it probably saved a few thousand lives, in the immediate term! I'm sure it was all worth it
here is my simplified view: political or not...we have an idealist party and a realist party and we are run by the media...pretty much everything seems to boil down to that. 🤷🏼♀️
Went to the park yesterday. I'd say at least half the people, including children, were wearing masks. This isn't some tiny park in the middle of a metropolis. This is a huge, sprawling park in the suburbs about 5 miles east of LA proper.
Although my friends and family argue that people wearing masks outside doesn't harm anyone, I think that the rationale behind wearing masks outside is partially to blame for the continued enforcement of outdated and unscientific restrictions. I see plenty of people walking alone, running, fishing (this park has lakes), and doing all sorts of outdoor activities while wearing a mask. I see middle-school aged kids playing organized sports while wearing masks. Seeing these behaviors, I can't help but think people won't be psychologically or emotionally ready for the pandemic to end. I fear that even when Covid becomes merely endemic, it will take a lot longer for people to behave as if the worst of it is over. I understand that it's human nature to fear something long after the worry is justified, but it still frustrates me ...
I even asked a family friend who is a doctor about his thoughts on people watering their lawns while wearing a mask or driving with a mask on, and he just couldn't come out and tell me it's pointless.
I have always viewed our country to be more likened to the United Nations- sovereign states (nations) who recognize the necessity of sharing resources with common purpose/ created based on foundational common values.
So- YES, we have to approach obstacles based in reality- in the country we HAVE.
YES, there certainly are (more openly visible lately) polarizing visions of this country's future/values....and I don't think it has ever been more apparent in my lifetime (50 yrs) how much the hunger for power is not even being camouflaged anymore in the USA.
Frightening to no longer see foundational shared values.
In my lifetime, I have been immersed in moderate left through moderate right political ideology and have never felt compelled to make either my "religion" or subscribe to a tribe.
I guess I am "alt-middle" and have always disdained categorizing/ judging human beings in any way to simplify them/ me/ you in to un-nuanced boxes.
I value asymmetry in a way- It helps balance the extremes, I suppose.
Ying/yang. Male/ Female. Left/ Right. I loathe echo chambers - how would we ever have our own personal checks & balances of thoughts and ideas without Ying & Yang?
Sigh- I hate how it is a taboo feeling to talk about this, but it resonates with me so much when Vinay noted the scary truth of "Religion is in decline and politics is the new God for so many".
This being the reality, it makes it more challenging to even discuss ANYTHING of value to LIVING.
And why just having a heartbeat and oxygen circulating while isolating in solitude for nearly 2 years does not constitute some kind of savior moral accomplishment for a LOT of people.
I see the demonization of the words individualistic & collectivist to mean incorrectly, something binary ..an EITHER/ OR kafka trap: you are EITHER "selfish" OR you care about the community/ society.
That is false-framing.
If you have no autonomy, you cannot develop and put forth your best-unique-self on the field for the collective. If there is only Individualism or Collectivism, we all are dumbed down to the lowest denominator.
Anyway- thank you Vinay- I sought you out to ensure I stay balanced and unbiased as so many of us are seeking truth as we have been seeing/ feeling many red-flags... and I cannot express how much I appreciate and value your voice.
"Public Health" is a bad, treacherous joke. It was a pawn of big Pharma and the repressive Left. It killed far more than it saved, and that truth will continue to emerge for years, if not decades. "Public Health" will never recover - and good riddance!
Love these pieces. Please keep them coming along with your usual appraisal of the scientific literature. Both are life savers. Btw, i live in canada and i cant imagine trusting public health, government, or the unquestioning citizens here for the rest of my life. From apolitical mom to a person filled with rage in 2 years. This cant be a positive on my health or family’s health and well being.
THANK YOU for this! I’m convinced we never had to lose nearly as many lives in those first few months as we did. The sorry truth about the Lockdown of 2020 is that those who had to go to work, so that the rest of us could stay home, were thrown under the bus.
Those who fell ill got little-or-no medical care until they were sick enough for the ICU. And not just because they were afraid to go. There was intense pressure on sick people to “care for yourself at home” and NOT show up physically at any health care facility. The official advice from CDC was clueless: Wear a face mask (if you can get one). Stay in a separate room (easier said than done) and “use a separate bathroom if possible” (yeah, right!) And call “your health care provider” (who’s that?) if your symptoms “worsen” (good luck).
For people sharing crowded apartments, it was hard to avoid infecting the whole household. And people living solo could well be all alone if pneumonia hit. Even sturdy younger adults can die in those circumstances, if they can’t stand up and are half out of their heads with fever.
Here in Chicago the authorities did spend several hundred million on “field hospitals.” A total waste – they mainly sat empty. You know why? No one was allowed to be admitted directly! They were set up strictly as “step-down units” where people could be discharged from the “real” hospitals once they no longer needed ICU care. I’m sure that suited our big private med centers just fine – it was probably their idea. But it was exactly the opposite of what was needed – a place where people could get an infirmary level of care, that might keep them from ever needing the “real” hospital (and keep them from infecting the folks at home).
Not exactly Utopia, for sure. But by that time it was pretty clear we had already lost several hundred lives in Chicago that could have been saved by exactly this kind of care. Mostly in crowded Black and Latino neighborhoods, and in crowded workplaces where the owners have been left in charge of Covid-19 precautions. It seems to have racked up a pretty damn good record, too – after a month in operation with a daily census of about 70, only a half-dozen people had had to transfer to the hospital.
We should take a look at programs like this, before the records are lost and the memories fade. We will need them next time. In fact, in some parts of the country I am sure we need them right now.
When you say that you go to war with the country you have, I think that also applies to the Public Health world. They had spent so much time in their own bubble, presuming that they could do every good thing if people would just do what they say, that every underpowered epidemiology study showed exactly what the abstract said and couldn’t possibly be undermined by its own methods and findings. The failure of this wing of academia and public service, intersecting with the character of the US population that you rightly identified, was partially what landed us in this mess.
Thank you for your balanced view. One point I would highlight is the incredibly presumptuous elites calling for lockdowns while depending on working class people to deliver their essentials. What that proved to many (like 80%) was essential workers did not succumb to the virus at greater rates and they developed immunity prior to vaccines. For this group, dictates could not override common experience. Mandates for these people (and I was one who was constantly exposed) have only generated more resistance because they are a senseless risk if you have immunity. Compound this with small business owners losing their livelihoods at astonishing rates and you now have two groups who are naturally against lockdowns. I haven’t even gotten to the sometimes sensible sometimes not anti-vax contingent. Presto, you have just alienated and embittered a good percentage of your countrymen. And regarding that Melbourne thing, wait until Omicron meets negative efficacy. Not likely to be pretty.
Facing a crisis of health care and practitioners, did we admit to inadequate facilities and staff? Have we taken a look at how we might expand those facilities, just in case? Can we develop training for supplementary workers to support the front line care workers? While we can call on portions of the National Guard should we not have others trained to help? I recall being a Red Cross certified "buddy care" person in the military and think (or hope) such training has continued. Perhaps similar classes by the Red Cross like CPR for our high school students as an after class for those who want to be helpers. Maybe a bit more prepared for a near collapse of the health care system?
Vinay, why is there no discussion about the probabilities of the vaccine having negative outcomes on the population in the future? 1, 2, 5 year year projections. Has any scientist actually made an attempt at this? Do we have enough valid data to these projections (probabilities)? Are your scientist colleagues operating under the assumption that the vaccine is perfectly safe in the long run? And if so, how are they able to determine that? Thanks!
Actually, the asymmetry has provided natural experiments that the Expert Class continues to ignore. Comparison of the case rates/hospitalization rates/death rates for the least subjugated states and the most subjugated states shows no practical difference. This is important, real-world data with most of the confounders washed out by the law of large numbers. But this fact-in-evidence is seldom mentioned.
The lack of value of almost all of the measures (other than the diminishing of severity of the disease for a few months in the elderly after the mRNA series -- something not valueless for sure, at least for them in the short term) has been obvious for months and should have allowed the unreasoning policies of the more restrictive areas (vaccine passports/masking/school closure) to be ended. Instead, in the way first cited by Einstein, most of those jurisdictions just continue to try twice as hard to do what has been demonstrated not to work.
This has been an irretrievable failure of public health (lying to people is likely the worst thing to do when trying to get public health trust... and people do not forget) but, much to my continuing distress, has also abrogated substantially the credibility of most practicing physicians. Since the doctor/patient relationship, and not some bureaucratic psychobabble, is the foundation of health care delivery, this will have, I fear, long term untoward consequences for all of us.
America locking down harder? No need to theorise. Simply look at other parts of the world. In Jordan, the army was deployed on the streets to force people to stay at home. In Germany and Austria they have been N95/FFP2 for the whole pandemic, vaccine passes and extra pcr testing to get a coffee. Plenty of covid still there! The British forbade hugs. In Canada people were encouraged to snitch on each other. Why is it so hard to accept that you can't out-virus a respiratory virus?
Don't get me started on China or Australia. Both those countries bought themselves a year. In Australia's case the cost was them turning into a paranoid obsessive draconian police state - which has plenty of covid!
But hey it probably saved a few thousand lives, in the immediate term! I'm sure it was all worth it
here is my simplified view: political or not...we have an idealist party and a realist party and we are run by the media...pretty much everything seems to boil down to that. 🤷🏼♀️
Went to the park yesterday. I'd say at least half the people, including children, were wearing masks. This isn't some tiny park in the middle of a metropolis. This is a huge, sprawling park in the suburbs about 5 miles east of LA proper.
Although my friends and family argue that people wearing masks outside doesn't harm anyone, I think that the rationale behind wearing masks outside is partially to blame for the continued enforcement of outdated and unscientific restrictions. I see plenty of people walking alone, running, fishing (this park has lakes), and doing all sorts of outdoor activities while wearing a mask. I see middle-school aged kids playing organized sports while wearing masks. Seeing these behaviors, I can't help but think people won't be psychologically or emotionally ready for the pandemic to end. I fear that even when Covid becomes merely endemic, it will take a lot longer for people to behave as if the worst of it is over. I understand that it's human nature to fear something long after the worry is justified, but it still frustrates me ...
I even asked a family friend who is a doctor about his thoughts on people watering their lawns while wearing a mask or driving with a mask on, and he just couldn't come out and tell me it's pointless.
I have always viewed our country to be more likened to the United Nations- sovereign states (nations) who recognize the necessity of sharing resources with common purpose/ created based on foundational common values.
So- YES, we have to approach obstacles based in reality- in the country we HAVE.
YES, there certainly are (more openly visible lately) polarizing visions of this country's future/values....and I don't think it has ever been more apparent in my lifetime (50 yrs) how much the hunger for power is not even being camouflaged anymore in the USA.
Frightening to no longer see foundational shared values.
In my lifetime, I have been immersed in moderate left through moderate right political ideology and have never felt compelled to make either my "religion" or subscribe to a tribe.
I guess I am "alt-middle" and have always disdained categorizing/ judging human beings in any way to simplify them/ me/ you in to un-nuanced boxes.
I value asymmetry in a way- It helps balance the extremes, I suppose.
Ying/yang. Male/ Female. Left/ Right. I loathe echo chambers - how would we ever have our own personal checks & balances of thoughts and ideas without Ying & Yang?
Sigh- I hate how it is a taboo feeling to talk about this, but it resonates with me so much when Vinay noted the scary truth of "Religion is in decline and politics is the new God for so many".
This being the reality, it makes it more challenging to even discuss ANYTHING of value to LIVING.
And why just having a heartbeat and oxygen circulating while isolating in solitude for nearly 2 years does not constitute some kind of savior moral accomplishment for a LOT of people.
I see the demonization of the words individualistic & collectivist to mean incorrectly, something binary ..an EITHER/ OR kafka trap: you are EITHER "selfish" OR you care about the community/ society.
That is false-framing.
If you have no autonomy, you cannot develop and put forth your best-unique-self on the field for the collective. If there is only Individualism or Collectivism, we all are dumbed down to the lowest denominator.
Anyway- thank you Vinay- I sought you out to ensure I stay balanced and unbiased as so many of us are seeking truth as we have been seeing/ feeling many red-flags... and I cannot express how much I appreciate and value your voice.
~Cari
"Public Health" is a bad, treacherous joke. It was a pawn of big Pharma and the repressive Left. It killed far more than it saved, and that truth will continue to emerge for years, if not decades. "Public Health" will never recover - and good riddance!
Love these pieces. Please keep them coming along with your usual appraisal of the scientific literature. Both are life savers. Btw, i live in canada and i cant imagine trusting public health, government, or the unquestioning citizens here for the rest of my life. From apolitical mom to a person filled with rage in 2 years. This cant be a positive on my health or family’s health and well being.
THANK YOU for this! I’m convinced we never had to lose nearly as many lives in those first few months as we did. The sorry truth about the Lockdown of 2020 is that those who had to go to work, so that the rest of us could stay home, were thrown under the bus.
Those who fell ill got little-or-no medical care until they were sick enough for the ICU. And not just because they were afraid to go. There was intense pressure on sick people to “care for yourself at home” and NOT show up physically at any health care facility. The official advice from CDC was clueless: Wear a face mask (if you can get one). Stay in a separate room (easier said than done) and “use a separate bathroom if possible” (yeah, right!) And call “your health care provider” (who’s that?) if your symptoms “worsen” (good luck).
For people sharing crowded apartments, it was hard to avoid infecting the whole household. And people living solo could well be all alone if pneumonia hit. Even sturdy younger adults can die in those circumstances, if they can’t stand up and are half out of their heads with fever.
Here in Chicago the authorities did spend several hundred million on “field hospitals.” A total waste – they mainly sat empty. You know why? No one was allowed to be admitted directly! They were set up strictly as “step-down units” where people could be discharged from the “real” hospitals once they no longer needed ICU care. I’m sure that suited our big private med centers just fine – it was probably their idea. But it was exactly the opposite of what was needed – a place where people could get an infirmary level of care, that might keep them from ever needing the “real” hospital (and keep them from infecting the folks at home).
I almost cried when I read this article from the Boston Globe, about a Quality Inn in Revere that was turned into a Covid-19 infirmary: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/05/10/metro/life-inside-quality-inn-turned-isolation-hotel-revere/
Not exactly Utopia, for sure. But by that time it was pretty clear we had already lost several hundred lives in Chicago that could have been saved by exactly this kind of care. Mostly in crowded Black and Latino neighborhoods, and in crowded workplaces where the owners have been left in charge of Covid-19 precautions. It seems to have racked up a pretty damn good record, too – after a month in operation with a daily census of about 70, only a half-dozen people had had to transfer to the hospital.
We should take a look at programs like this, before the records are lost and the memories fade. We will need them next time. In fact, in some parts of the country I am sure we need them right now.
When you say that you go to war with the country you have, I think that also applies to the Public Health world. They had spent so much time in their own bubble, presuming that they could do every good thing if people would just do what they say, that every underpowered epidemiology study showed exactly what the abstract said and couldn’t possibly be undermined by its own methods and findings. The failure of this wing of academia and public service, intersecting with the character of the US population that you rightly identified, was partially what landed us in this mess.
Thank you for your balanced view. One point I would highlight is the incredibly presumptuous elites calling for lockdowns while depending on working class people to deliver their essentials. What that proved to many (like 80%) was essential workers did not succumb to the virus at greater rates and they developed immunity prior to vaccines. For this group, dictates could not override common experience. Mandates for these people (and I was one who was constantly exposed) have only generated more resistance because they are a senseless risk if you have immunity. Compound this with small business owners losing their livelihoods at astonishing rates and you now have two groups who are naturally against lockdowns. I haven’t even gotten to the sometimes sensible sometimes not anti-vax contingent. Presto, you have just alienated and embittered a good percentage of your countrymen. And regarding that Melbourne thing, wait until Omicron meets negative efficacy. Not likely to be pretty.
Facing a crisis of health care and practitioners, did we admit to inadequate facilities and staff? Have we taken a look at how we might expand those facilities, just in case? Can we develop training for supplementary workers to support the front line care workers? While we can call on portions of the National Guard should we not have others trained to help? I recall being a Red Cross certified "buddy care" person in the military and think (or hope) such training has continued. Perhaps similar classes by the Red Cross like CPR for our high school students as an after class for those who want to be helpers. Maybe a bit more prepared for a near collapse of the health care system?
So well put!
Vinay, why is there no discussion about the probabilities of the vaccine having negative outcomes on the population in the future? 1, 2, 5 year year projections. Has any scientist actually made an attempt at this? Do we have enough valid data to these projections (probabilities)? Are your scientist colleagues operating under the assumption that the vaccine is perfectly safe in the long run? And if so, how are they able to determine that? Thanks!
More resources, less restrictions! Love that.