Vinay, I've followed you for years through your podcast, then twitter, now substack. Interesting timing of your move to Substack. Yes, you can speak more freely here.
My husband and I are community college instructors (I teach physiology and micro; he teaches math). We have made the decision to remain unvaccinated and we are facing job loss. We have two boys, ages 15 and 12, and moving will be difficult. We also don't know of where will be able to get jobs - the education field seems to be rapidly closing for us.
The question I often want to ask people that believe strongly that getting vaccinated is so much in the best interest of society that they believe there should be punishment/a price to pay for declining - just how much of a price? Should decliners lose their income, have no future job prospects, have their children's lives upended, blocked from education and any sports or other kid activities? That likewise doesn't seem good for society, either.
Dr Pasad — Thank you thank you thank you for your wise, measured, and compassionate voice during this destabilizing time. I just listened to your conversation with Bari Weiss and it was like a life raft in a sea of crazy. I am also in San Francisco where my 7 and 10 year old have been in public school for over 6 weeks now with ZERO covid transmission, and still the conversation amongst the grown-ups in the school yard is uncontainable glee for Oct 31 when they are counting down for their 5 - 11 year olds to get the shot. Your breakdown here of the risk gradient according to age is so clear and powerful and I will be sharing it amongst friends — though I’ve grown skeptical about reaching those who have already been sucked completely into the mainstream fear narrative. When my husband and I lay awake at 3Am discussing this (and other places we might consider living) I said to him these parents gaming to be “first in line” for their elementary school students remind me of the competitiveness when I was a kid (I’m a few years older than you I think :) for the new Cabbage Patch doll or Air Jordan’s. It feels so utterly disconnected to data — especially here in SF, and it feels reflective of a certain type of excess & sickness — one much for troubling than Covid 19.
Again, I am so grateful for your voice as we try to navigate this! 🙏
San Francisco has been ground zero for zombie lunacy all along, and it ain't getting better. Ironically, the people here showed their true faces when they covered them.
I've been reassessing how concerned we have been with our 5 and 7 year old for a couple of weeks now and have been frustrated in the statistics that are presented in most articles. In an NPR article there was a state that children < 18 have a < 2% chance of hospitalization. Well, why < 2% instead of a number? Why are we grouping 5-12 year olds with 12 - 17 year olds when the vaccine cuttoff is at 12? What does 'hospitalization' mean? Etc. The articles have bold headlines about increase in pediatric cases but offer little in way of stats that put the concern to a scale.
Tried posting these questions on Twitter and got 0 responses. Posted on another sustack and someone pointed me towards a BBC article that noted children have only a 1/50K chance of going to the ICU. Well that is a different story than a 2% chance of hospitalization.
Glad to hear the Pfizer vaccine for kids are showing to be safe and will probably get them. But I wonder if the risk of infection for kids are so low that the vaccine isn't really worth it, and will just be more like a placebo for the sake of my own piece of mind then make a real different. And I wonder if infection is such a smaller risk for kids, would they be better off getting a minor infection and gaining natural immunity? Did the Israel study break down kids with natural immunity? Most likely, I'm staying don't the course of reduced exposure until vaccination but am frustrated as I don't feel the real information to drive that decision is being made available.
Nice comparison. I’m sure you can find other maddening comparisons about how the State in trying to “protect” us has only made things worse.
Perhaps they should stop protecting us from an invisible virus and instead protect us from bullies and outside aggressors. But that would mean they would have to look in the mirror at their own policies and they probably wouldn’t admit what they see.
Yet, we do not want to discuss a mandate for Medicare recipients. Only for the young people and working people that will lose their jobs because of it. The ones less at risk. Insane!
Last two sentences, priceless. Thank goodness for humour. My boys ski and mtn bike- these sports “ keep me up at night”. Not covid. Also, as a vaccinated adult, i am compelled to agree with Dr. Stabell Benn - maybe we should consider not having this be a vaccinated illness in children as we move forward.
Thank you Dr. Prasad for your rational, non-partisan approach to evaluating data. I really appreciate the nuances and the idea of academic discourse and analysis. I too live in the Bay Area, consider myself progressive (Community college professor also) but am appalled at the fearmongering mainstream media stories and the virtue signalling of folks wearing a mask while hiking with their dogs up a steep trail at Mori Point 100 yard away from anyone else with the stiff ocean breeze?
Vinay, I've followed you for years through your podcast, then twitter, now substack. Interesting timing of your move to Substack. Yes, you can speak more freely here.
My husband and I are community college instructors (I teach physiology and micro; he teaches math). We have made the decision to remain unvaccinated and we are facing job loss. We have two boys, ages 15 and 12, and moving will be difficult. We also don't know of where will be able to get jobs - the education field seems to be rapidly closing for us.
The question I often want to ask people that believe strongly that getting vaccinated is so much in the best interest of society that they believe there should be punishment/a price to pay for declining - just how much of a price? Should decliners lose their income, have no future job prospects, have their children's lives upended, blocked from education and any sports or other kid activities? That likewise doesn't seem good for society, either.
Dr Pasad — Thank you thank you thank you for your wise, measured, and compassionate voice during this destabilizing time. I just listened to your conversation with Bari Weiss and it was like a life raft in a sea of crazy. I am also in San Francisco where my 7 and 10 year old have been in public school for over 6 weeks now with ZERO covid transmission, and still the conversation amongst the grown-ups in the school yard is uncontainable glee for Oct 31 when they are counting down for their 5 - 11 year olds to get the shot. Your breakdown here of the risk gradient according to age is so clear and powerful and I will be sharing it amongst friends — though I’ve grown skeptical about reaching those who have already been sucked completely into the mainstream fear narrative. When my husband and I lay awake at 3Am discussing this (and other places we might consider living) I said to him these parents gaming to be “first in line” for their elementary school students remind me of the competitiveness when I was a kid (I’m a few years older than you I think :) for the new Cabbage Patch doll or Air Jordan’s. It feels so utterly disconnected to data — especially here in SF, and it feels reflective of a certain type of excess & sickness — one much for troubling than Covid 19.
Again, I am so grateful for your voice as we try to navigate this! 🙏
San Francisco has been ground zero for zombie lunacy all along, and it ain't getting better. Ironically, the people here showed their true faces when they covered them.
I've been reassessing how concerned we have been with our 5 and 7 year old for a couple of weeks now and have been frustrated in the statistics that are presented in most articles. In an NPR article there was a state that children < 18 have a < 2% chance of hospitalization. Well, why < 2% instead of a number? Why are we grouping 5-12 year olds with 12 - 17 year olds when the vaccine cuttoff is at 12? What does 'hospitalization' mean? Etc. The articles have bold headlines about increase in pediatric cases but offer little in way of stats that put the concern to a scale.
Tried posting these questions on Twitter and got 0 responses. Posted on another sustack and someone pointed me towards a BBC article that noted children have only a 1/50K chance of going to the ICU. Well that is a different story than a 2% chance of hospitalization.
Glad to hear the Pfizer vaccine for kids are showing to be safe and will probably get them. But I wonder if the risk of infection for kids are so low that the vaccine isn't really worth it, and will just be more like a placebo for the sake of my own piece of mind then make a real different. And I wonder if infection is such a smaller risk for kids, would they be better off getting a minor infection and gaining natural immunity? Did the Israel study break down kids with natural immunity? Most likely, I'm staying don't the course of reduced exposure until vaccination but am frustrated as I don't feel the real information to drive that decision is being made available.
Nice comparison. I’m sure you can find other maddening comparisons about how the State in trying to “protect” us has only made things worse.
Perhaps they should stop protecting us from an invisible virus and instead protect us from bullies and outside aggressors. But that would mean they would have to look in the mirror at their own policies and they probably wouldn’t admit what they see.
Yet, we do not want to discuss a mandate for Medicare recipients. Only for the young people and working people that will lose their jobs because of it. The ones less at risk. Insane!
Thank you for all of your hard work. It is much appreciated.
Last two sentences, priceless. Thank goodness for humour. My boys ski and mtn bike- these sports “ keep me up at night”. Not covid. Also, as a vaccinated adult, i am compelled to agree with Dr. Stabell Benn - maybe we should consider not having this be a vaccinated illness in children as we move forward.
Thank you Dr. Prasad for your rational, non-partisan approach to evaluating data. I really appreciate the nuances and the idea of academic discourse and analysis. I too live in the Bay Area, consider myself progressive (Community college professor also) but am appalled at the fearmongering mainstream media stories and the virtue signalling of folks wearing a mask while hiking with their dogs up a steep trail at Mori Point 100 yard away from anyone else with the stiff ocean breeze?