Risk of hospitalization, severe disease, and mortality due to COVID-19 in Kids
The New Germany Study!
There is a new study out now from Germany, allow me to give you the highlights:
The authors begin by noting that there is uncertainty around the absolute risks of COVID to kids. Often, people divide (kids with bad outcomes) by (kids who present to the health care system) but this will always exaggerate risk, as it does not include all the kids whose symptoms are so mild they don’t seek health care. In other words, the denominator is smaller than the real denominator.
Side note: the studies that claim COVID19 has more myocarditis than vaccination also suffer from this error. I talk about that topic here:
The Germany authors go on to do it the right way, they combine seroprevalance data with data on bad outcomes in kids. They divide (kids with bad outcomes) by (kids who had covid19). I am tempted to say this is amazing, but the truth is: this paper is doing a very basic and obvious thing. The papers people cite instead are flawed.
Here is what we find for healthy kids with covid19:
For healthy kids, the risk of going to the hospital is 51 per 100,000
For healthy kids, the risk of going to the ICU is 8 per 100,000
For healthy kids, the risk of death is 3 per 1,000,000 with no deaths reported in kids older than 5
Kids 5 to 11 have a lower risk than kids <5 and adolescents 12 to 17
Kids 5 to 11 have a risk of going to the ICU of 2 in 100,000; 0 died
Among kids who died of COVID19, 38% were already on palliative/ hospice care.
MIS-C/ PIMS was less common with delta
What’s the take away?