Thank you, yet again, for your expertise and wisdom in all of this chaos!! I swear the Twitter-verse is crawling with so called “experts” who are convinced you are a “grifter” and anytime I tweet any of your wisdom, I get bombarded by these crazies that are convinced you are not an “expert” I am most definitely not an expert, so when I try to defend you, I get so much hatred - it’s crazy! I know you hear this from so many, but I just can’t thank you enough for being the voice of reason in this whole mess! I am so glad that ZDoggMD introduced you to us supporters and now I’m sure many of his supporters are also supporters of yours here on substack, like I am. Thank you for all that you do!
Yet the "passports" are rolling out exactly when it matters least. Oakland, CA goes full blown Jim Crovid on February 1. You'll need an ID and medical records to buy coffee, generally exist.
Like many, I believed the vaccines would bring safety for myself and others and an end to the pandemic, so I got vaccinated. However, when it became clear that the vaccine did not prevent transmission and it was impossible to vaccinate a planet as fast as a respiratory virus could mutate, and vaccine efficacy was falling rapidly, and we would vaccinate ourselves 3,4, or 5 times while poor countries had zero, and we would ignore the concerns of higher risk people while we had little data to do so, and then my freedoms were impinged by further lockdowns, masking, and passports; my confidence in the vaccines and in the scientists and politicians driving us with their opinions became zero. Two years of my life have been forfeited for the cause. And all that’s happened is that my grandchildren ask me if they are going to die from Covid and Mother Nature now appears to have saved us by giving us Omicron. But only if we choose to take this opportunity to move forward with our lives. The scars are deep and will be long lived.
Can people *in charge* NOT really see/ have foresight about how today's political decisions affect future political outcomes? I find that difficult to believe....which then makes me think they have backup plans to ensure high-probability of success. I just don't believe Smart People are THAT dumb...and I no longer trust any one in authority- no matter who.
They brought the distrust on themselves. They are NOT trustworthy.
As Omicron arrives much of what might have been helpful in mitigation disappears. The highest levels of government well understand the game has changed and are beginning to adopt a different position to distance themselves as we awaken to the new reality, still not normal. The middle levels of government remain unaware of the shift and can't stop promoting policies now understood to be failing. Eventually the pandemic must subside as we accept SARs-CoV-2 becoming endemic. Sadly one casualty may be hopes for the novel new vaccine technology. We await the long term data on a great experiment but the VAERS reporting suggests we need to better understand who might be harmed from the new technology. While the vaccines may have been helpful to a certain population, its ineffectiveness over time and against variants changes the risk/reward balance.
I also wanted to say that what I've been hearing from you and other like-minded individuals has empowered me to resist any further vaccination mandates from my employer.
At the moment, there is no requirement for boosters or vaccinations within a specific time frame. However, given my history with Covid-19 vaccinations (I had flu-like symptoms for 8 days -- 4 days from each of the two shots -- that kept me in bed: fevers, chills, headaches, body aches, low mood, etc.), the fact that I contracted the virus over the holidays (with very minor symptoms, I should add), and the reduced impact of further vaccinations on transmission in the wake of omicron, I feel that booster mandates are basically an exercise of power. "Just follow the rules even if they don't make sense."
Considering my history with the vaccine, how the vaccine has become far less effective, and how the virus has become less severe and more transmissible overall, I feel that mandating a booster shot is like asking me to put myself through a few days of suffering for basically no public health benefit. I was voluntarily got the first two shots back when we thought it would help us prevent passing Covid on to family members, friends, co-workers, etc. But now that basically everyone can get it, and the consequences are far, far less severe on average, I don't see the point anymore. (Plus, I just got Covid, so can I really pass on something I'm most likely immune to anyway?)
My boss has been very reasonable regarding the implementation of Covid policies at the workplace, but in the end she is not still beholden to the higher-ups in the organization. My plan is to speak with her privately if a booster mandate does come down, whether that's by the state or the organization I work for.
Anyway, I just wanted to say again that you and others have given me confidence that I can mount a compelling case for being granted an exemption for a booster requirement.
I missed this post and appreciate you laying out a more expanded version of your argument against vaccine mandates. I still find it fairly unpersuasive, and think you are repackaging what is effectively a deontological argument (freedom/autonomy > welfare) as a utilitarian one.
A) There are countless examples of both private and public efforts to regulate individual health decisions: alcohol and cigarette taxes, indoor smoking bans, employer bonuses for meeting health goals, mandating calorie counts at restaurants, school and workplace vaccine mandates (meningitis, influenza, etc.) How does a 'sin tax' on cigarettes/alcohol differ substantially or philosophically than a tax return penalty for remaining unvaccinated against COVID-19?
B) The lifetime individual risk/benefit ratio for mRNA COVID-19 vaccination regimes is overwhelmingly positive in all men > 30 years old and all women/girls > 5 years old, particularly given that we are now seeing data that vaccination seems to protect against sequelae of COVID-19 infection (MIS-C, postviral 'long COVID' syndrome).
C) There's a fairly obvious difference in costs to the individual between mandating a lifetime exercise / diet regimen or a multi-year heart failure medication regimen, and getting an extremely safe 2-shot vaccine series.
D) There's also a fairly obvious difference in social cost between banning enjoyable social and leisure activities (skiing, social drinking) and mandating an extremely safe 2-shot vaccine series.
E) Your 'benefit-cost' ratio neglects the negative externalities of people with non-COVID19 illnesses who receive substandard care due to hospital saturation, and people who suffer adverse externalities living in areas that are subjected to repeated surges of COVID-19 disease. Postponed surgeries and elective procedures, aversion to healthcare settings during surges, anxiety, depression, loss of socialization, etc. The psychological, economic, and social harms to neurotic personality-types are no less real than the harms to antisocial / contrarian personality-types, but you repeatedly only count the latter and exclude the former.
So, a modified equation for an over-30 mandate:
(Marginal gain in total population QALYs due to increased life-years with vaccine protection) + (Marginal improvement in total population QALYs due to improved healthcare system function) + (Marginal improvement in psychosocial well-being of anxious personality types) - (Marginal decrement in psychosocial well-being of contrarian personality types).
Hard to see how this ends up being anything but positive.
I just wanted to let you know that you should proofread your posts very carefully. I noticed many errors in each paragraph.
The reason I mention this is you have so much valuable content to offer readers, but if there are any errors in the writing it may cause some to view your ideas as less legitimate.
Anyway, thanks again for being a beacon of hope in these dark times. You, Brett Weinstein and Heather Heying, and John Campbell (on YouTube) have helped me feel sane. I hope my subscription and those of others can encourage you to keep on going in the face of criticism and social pressure to conform.
Now if only omicron will smite the mask mandates we will be getting somewhere
Thank you, yet again, for your expertise and wisdom in all of this chaos!! I swear the Twitter-verse is crawling with so called “experts” who are convinced you are a “grifter” and anytime I tweet any of your wisdom, I get bombarded by these crazies that are convinced you are not an “expert” I am most definitely not an expert, so when I try to defend you, I get so much hatred - it’s crazy! I know you hear this from so many, but I just can’t thank you enough for being the voice of reason in this whole mess! I am so glad that ZDoggMD introduced you to us supporters and now I’m sure many of his supporters are also supporters of yours here on substack, like I am. Thank you for all that you do!
Yet the "passports" are rolling out exactly when it matters least. Oakland, CA goes full blown Jim Crovid on February 1. You'll need an ID and medical records to buy coffee, generally exist.
Like many, I believed the vaccines would bring safety for myself and others and an end to the pandemic, so I got vaccinated. However, when it became clear that the vaccine did not prevent transmission and it was impossible to vaccinate a planet as fast as a respiratory virus could mutate, and vaccine efficacy was falling rapidly, and we would vaccinate ourselves 3,4, or 5 times while poor countries had zero, and we would ignore the concerns of higher risk people while we had little data to do so, and then my freedoms were impinged by further lockdowns, masking, and passports; my confidence in the vaccines and in the scientists and politicians driving us with their opinions became zero. Two years of my life have been forfeited for the cause. And all that’s happened is that my grandchildren ask me if they are going to die from Covid and Mother Nature now appears to have saved us by giving us Omicron. But only if we choose to take this opportunity to move forward with our lives. The scars are deep and will be long lived.
Can people *in charge* NOT really see/ have foresight about how today's political decisions affect future political outcomes? I find that difficult to believe....which then makes me think they have backup plans to ensure high-probability of success. I just don't believe Smart People are THAT dumb...and I no longer trust any one in authority- no matter who.
They brought the distrust on themselves. They are NOT trustworthy.
So, why is the healthcare workers mandate still in place? The court doesn't give a shit about vaccine efficacy, they don't even understand it.
As Omicron arrives much of what might have been helpful in mitigation disappears. The highest levels of government well understand the game has changed and are beginning to adopt a different position to distance themselves as we awaken to the new reality, still not normal. The middle levels of government remain unaware of the shift and can't stop promoting policies now understood to be failing. Eventually the pandemic must subside as we accept SARs-CoV-2 becoming endemic. Sadly one casualty may be hopes for the novel new vaccine technology. We await the long term data on a great experiment but the VAERS reporting suggests we need to better understand who might be harmed from the new technology. While the vaccines may have been helpful to a certain population, its ineffectiveness over time and against variants changes the risk/reward balance.
I also wanted to say that what I've been hearing from you and other like-minded individuals has empowered me to resist any further vaccination mandates from my employer.
At the moment, there is no requirement for boosters or vaccinations within a specific time frame. However, given my history with Covid-19 vaccinations (I had flu-like symptoms for 8 days -- 4 days from each of the two shots -- that kept me in bed: fevers, chills, headaches, body aches, low mood, etc.), the fact that I contracted the virus over the holidays (with very minor symptoms, I should add), and the reduced impact of further vaccinations on transmission in the wake of omicron, I feel that booster mandates are basically an exercise of power. "Just follow the rules even if they don't make sense."
Considering my history with the vaccine, how the vaccine has become far less effective, and how the virus has become less severe and more transmissible overall, I feel that mandating a booster shot is like asking me to put myself through a few days of suffering for basically no public health benefit. I was voluntarily got the first two shots back when we thought it would help us prevent passing Covid on to family members, friends, co-workers, etc. But now that basically everyone can get it, and the consequences are far, far less severe on average, I don't see the point anymore. (Plus, I just got Covid, so can I really pass on something I'm most likely immune to anyway?)
My boss has been very reasonable regarding the implementation of Covid policies at the workplace, but in the end she is not still beholden to the higher-ups in the organization. My plan is to speak with her privately if a booster mandate does come down, whether that's by the state or the organization I work for.
Anyway, I just wanted to say again that you and others have given me confidence that I can mount a compelling case for being granted an exemption for a booster requirement.
I missed this post and appreciate you laying out a more expanded version of your argument against vaccine mandates. I still find it fairly unpersuasive, and think you are repackaging what is effectively a deontological argument (freedom/autonomy > welfare) as a utilitarian one.
A) There are countless examples of both private and public efforts to regulate individual health decisions: alcohol and cigarette taxes, indoor smoking bans, employer bonuses for meeting health goals, mandating calorie counts at restaurants, school and workplace vaccine mandates (meningitis, influenza, etc.) How does a 'sin tax' on cigarettes/alcohol differ substantially or philosophically than a tax return penalty for remaining unvaccinated against COVID-19?
B) The lifetime individual risk/benefit ratio for mRNA COVID-19 vaccination regimes is overwhelmingly positive in all men > 30 years old and all women/girls > 5 years old, particularly given that we are now seeing data that vaccination seems to protect against sequelae of COVID-19 infection (MIS-C, postviral 'long COVID' syndrome).
C) There's a fairly obvious difference in costs to the individual between mandating a lifetime exercise / diet regimen or a multi-year heart failure medication regimen, and getting an extremely safe 2-shot vaccine series.
D) There's also a fairly obvious difference in social cost between banning enjoyable social and leisure activities (skiing, social drinking) and mandating an extremely safe 2-shot vaccine series.
E) Your 'benefit-cost' ratio neglects the negative externalities of people with non-COVID19 illnesses who receive substandard care due to hospital saturation, and people who suffer adverse externalities living in areas that are subjected to repeated surges of COVID-19 disease. Postponed surgeries and elective procedures, aversion to healthcare settings during surges, anxiety, depression, loss of socialization, etc. The psychological, economic, and social harms to neurotic personality-types are no less real than the harms to antisocial / contrarian personality-types, but you repeatedly only count the latter and exclude the former.
So, a modified equation for an over-30 mandate:
(Marginal gain in total population QALYs due to increased life-years with vaccine protection) + (Marginal improvement in total population QALYs due to improved healthcare system function) + (Marginal improvement in psychosocial well-being of anxious personality types) - (Marginal decrement in psychosocial well-being of contrarian personality types).
Hard to see how this ends up being anything but positive.
Hi, Dr. Prasad.
I just wanted to let you know that you should proofread your posts very carefully. I noticed many errors in each paragraph.
The reason I mention this is you have so much valuable content to offer readers, but if there are any errors in the writing it may cause some to view your ideas as less legitimate.
Anyway, thanks again for being a beacon of hope in these dark times. You, Brett Weinstein and Heather Heying, and John Campbell (on YouTube) have helped me feel sane. I hope my subscription and those of others can encourage you to keep on going in the face of criticism and social pressure to conform.
Vinay if I wanted to send you an email with an .xls data file. What would the best way to do that be?